In Search of The Stupid
What topics make people so excited that they do stupid things? It’s an important question for marketing and cyber threat actors alike. Let’s briefly talk about “Negative Selection.” Also sometimes called adversarial selection, this is the process of intentionally inserting or leaving mistakes in communications that are specifically intended to filter for a specific result. There is an absurd example of this in the tv show “How I Met Your Mother.”
Barney (Neil Patrick Harris) has long asserted he can pick up any girl. Robin (Cobie Smulders) determines to prove him wrong. To sabotage him, Robin finds an attractive young girl at the bar. Robin introduces herself to the girl as Ryan Gosling’s personal assistant. She tells the girl that Ryan has seen her and would like to come talk to her. However, he is excessively shy and if she is seen talking to any other man, Ryan would likely just turn and walk away.
When Barney approaches the young woman, she aggressively (predictably) tries to shoo him away. Undeterred, Barney gradually uncovers the obstacle. She’s waiting for Ryan Gosling. The solution, he explains that HE IS Ryan Gosling, although recently he has had plastic surgery to alter his appearance for a movie roll.
Is it absurd that a hopeful young woman would believe that Ryan Gosling would have such dramatic plastic surgery that he now looks like Neil Patrick Harris? Sure. But remember, she was pre-filtered as naive and hopeful enough to believe that she had been noticed by Ryan and that he was somehow too shy to approach her. In effect, Robin had identified the girl’s weakness for Barney and inadvertently made his job easier.
Unscrupulous marketing types are not alone in their desire to avoid wasting time on prospects that won’t convert. Today’s efficient scammer takes queues from traditional marketers and attempts to filter for highly interested parties.
Such lists are built by implementing different types of qualifying barriers. An error in spelling or grammar may tip off a more discerning reader. A slightly off brand version of a logo, or a wonky domain name might trigger somebody who is at all concerned about being victimized. While the resulting list of prospects is smaller than it could be, they are more motivated to believe and more likely to be scammed.
Scammers often use Gmail accounts because they are free and easy to set up. But Gmail accounts also work as a qualifying barrier. When searching for an easy target, it is helpful to have a sub-list of respondents who are too blinded by excitement to consider that Bill Gates or the marketing manager at Tesla probably doesn’t use an @gmail.com address.
Better than ignoring warning signs are qualifying barriers that elicit something of value, like time or money. Winning a new car without entering a contest seems improbable. But it seems more probable if there is accompanying paperwork. And it can appear downright logical to some that a credit card would be required to cover the cost of taxes and delivery. There is always a catch, right? Giving the prospect obstacles up front can both lower their defenses, and when they clear the hurdles, help identify exactly how willing they are to be scammed.
In the hierarchy of lists, members of a colder prospect list may have overlooked some things and quickly entered their name and or email in a database. A warmer prospect may have spent time filling out a longer form, participated in a poll or even paid a nominal refundable fee upfront. The hot prospect list would contain those that have spent both time and money in an effort to get to their desires.
In the more historical world of broadcast marketing, branding and broad appeal were critical. Newspaper ads or TV/Radio spots were by definition a one to many medium. The goal was to attract as many people as possible from the wide audience who saw things more or less simultaneously.
With the rise of targeted digital marketing, the offering has gained prominence. While the marketing message is sent to millions at a time, it is actually by its nature a one-to-one communication. The offer itself can be absurd to most people, because it’s not for everybody. It’s only for those who want to and are inclined to believe. And it is personalized to align with the recipients pre-existing beliefs.
The end goal, even in the scammer scenario, is not usually to get the credit card number. After all, two or three fraudulent transactions are usually all that can be hoped for from a stolen credit card. The end goal is the list, or rather the ranked lists. Ongoing value is found in knowing what drives this group of prospects into a state of blind action. It matters little if these triggers are altruism, lust, empathy, greed or anger. What matters in an era of targeted marketing is sorting people by what makes them go stupid.